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March 15 (Bloomberg) -- South Korean stocks and the won may rebound this week as investors bet the upheaval following the decision to impeach President Roh Moo Hyun will be short-lived, investors said. Posco and Kookmin Bank may pace gains.

The benchmark Kospi index slid 6.3 percent last week, its biggest weekly decline in six months, after lawmakers voted Friday to impeach Roh for alleged election law violations. The currency had its biggest drop in almost three weeks.

Roh, 57, who was accused by opposition lawmakers of breaking laws that bar the president from publicly taking sides in next month's parliamentary elections, is the first South Korean leader to be impeached. Prime Minister Goh Kun, 66, took charge as acting president for a maximum of six months, while Roh is suspended from office pending the constitutional court's decision.

``I'm not much concerned about the impeachment. It won't lead to political chaos, nor will it cause an economic paralysis,'' said Cho Yong Chan, a market strategist at Daishin Economic Research Institute in Seoul. ``I expect Korean stocks to rise early this week, following their U.S. peers.''

In the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite Index, which gets two- fifths of its value from technology-related stocks, gained 2.1 percent to 1,984.73. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose 1.1 percent to 10,240.08 on Friday.

The Kospi slumped as much as 5.5 percent Friday before closing 2.4 percent lower at 848.80. The won fell 1 percent to 1,180.8 against the dollar, its biggest drop since Feb. 23. Bond yields rose as some investors demanded more returns to hold the nation's debt.


``History shows the financial markets fall on the day of a political upheaval as a knee-jerk reaction, but then quickly rebound,'' said Daishin Economic Research's Cho.

Posco is the largest steelmaker in South Korea. Its American depositary receipts climbed 1.1 percent to $34.50. Kookmin Bank's ADRs added 0.3 percent to $39. Kookmin is South Korea's largest lender.

The National Assembly voted 193-2 in favor of Roh's impeachment. The former human rights lawyer, who was elected a year ago, will be tried before the country's Constitutional Court. Six votes of the nine justices are required to remove him from office, which would trigger an election.

Newspaper polls in Seoul on the weekend showed more than seven out of 10 people disagreed with Roh's impeachment and believed the suspension is wrong. Demonstrators took to the streets to protest the move over the weekend.

Samsung Electronics, the nation's largest company by market value, shed 9,000 won, or 1.7 percent, to 524,000. Posco, South Korea's largest steelmaker, shed 2.4 percent to 160,500.


``The impeachment will not have any impact on the export of our steel products or our overseas business,'' said Kim Soo Jung, a Posco spokeswoman. The company said it will raise the price of steel plates and wire rods it exports to Japan by more than 20 percent in the second quarter, the largest-ever quarterly increase for the products in Japan.

Daishin Economic Research's Cho said the Kospi probably won't move above 860 this week unless there is positive corporate or economic news, while the won will trade in a range between 1,170 and 1,180 to the U.S. dollar. South Korea is scheduled to announce February unemployment figures Thursday. The jobless rate fell to a nine-month low of 3.3 percent in January.

On Saturday, Goh, best known as a corruption buster while he was mayor of Seoul, sought to reassure local and international investors that the nation's economic growth won't be hurt by the political storm. Finance Minister Lee Hun Jai said the government will continue to pursue existing economic policies.


The impeachment may hinder the government's ability to negotiate with North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, some analysts have said.

North Korea said yesterday it wants to move planned talks with the South on a trade settlement system to the northern city of Kaesong from Paju in the south because of the political instability in Seoul.

South Korea's debt rating won't be affected by the impeachment, Thomas Byrne, a senior analyst at Moody's Investors Service, said in an interview. Standard & Poor's and Fitch also said they won't lower South Korea's government debt rating.

``While the vote clearly presents negative headline risks, we do not view it as undermining Korea's sound credit fundamentals,'' Scott Wilson, an analyst at UBS, said in a research note.

Julian Mayo, a fund manager at London-based Charlemagne Capital U.K. Ltd., also said in a note that the impeachment may not have ``major impact on Korean stock prices.''

The following stocks may rise or fall in South Korea. Prices refer to the previous close. The stock symbol is in brackets after the company name.

Hyundai Motor Co. (005380 KS): South Korea's largest automaker decided to cancel 1.32 million shares, or 0.6 percent, of its common shares, from tomorrow to June 15, according to a regulatory filing to the Korea Stock Exchange on Friday after the market closed. The stock cancellation may be followed by another, said Suh Sung Moon, an analyst at Donwon Securities Co. in a research report. Suh has ``buy'' recommendation on the stock and a six-month stock price prediction of 69,000 won.

Posco (005490 KS): The nation's largest steelmaker may increase the price of steel sold domestically after the April 15 parliamentary election in line with rising export prices, the Internet news provider Edaily said, citing a report by LG Investment & Securities Co. Posco shed 4,000 won, or 2.4 percent, to 160,500.

SK Corp. (003600 KS): Shareholders in SK Corp. on Friday voted in their annual general meeting against the company's single largest shareholder Sovereign Asset Management Ltd.'s call to fire Chief Executive Chey Tae Won, 43, for his involvement in a fraud of at least $1.3 billion at a trading unit. They also rejected four of five candidates that Sovereign nominated for the 10-strong board of directors.

Shares of SK Corp., the nation's largest oil refiner, rose 650 won, or 1.7 percent, to 38,750 as investors expected the company to improve its corporate governance after the meeting. ``Reform at SK is already under way and there's no way of going back,'' said J.J. Kim, an analyst at Samsung Securities Co.

Separately, Wellington Management Co. on Friday said it increased its stake in SK Corp. to 9.07 percent from 7.97 percent, making the U.S. fund the second-biggest single shareholder after Sovereign.
[ÀμâÇϱâ] 2004-03-15 10:37:59


     
  


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